PM Harper is a prisoner of his own ideology

PM Harper is a prisoner of his own ideology. His support within his party are from two sources: Alberta and the Harris left over MPs in Ontario. Harper is held captive to these two groups. Any move to the left of them towards the centre, may cost him his political life.

Harper is constantly trying to sell the party to his MPs in other areas. In addition, he has to sell his party to Canadians. Harper will eventually fail to constantly reconciling the Reformed-Harris left overs with the centrist MPs. He will eventually fail and the CPC will disintegrate into two or more parties, thus ushering the end of the Stalin-Conservatives era, Canada has been experimenting with.

Harper's contribution to Canada

This is a sad day in Canada. It is a sad day because the polarization of Canada has started and it is playing itself in the main streets of Canada. Harper has successfully thrown Canada in a dangerous path.

Each camp now has entrenched into a position with only one possible outcome, and that is, there have to be one clear loser and another clear winner. Today's rallies that was called by the Conservative party wiped any chances of healing or a compromise or nation building.

There can be only one winner and whether Harper stays in power or loses power to the coalition, it is clear that Canada will suffer for years or possibly decades to come.

This is Harper's contribution to Canada.

Harper role in the Conservative Party of Canada

The Conservative party of Canada owes its existence and its eventual demise to Harper. Harper has been able to unite the party by depending on the Western MPs (ExReformed) and Ontario's Harris leftovers who are paying their debt to him for delivering the reigns of government to the new and improved Reformed-Harris type Party. Depending on this group (Ont + Alberta), the other Conservative MPs are outnumbered and outvoted.

The demise of the Conservative Party will come when a MP from Ontario takes over the leadership and start taking the party to the ideological centre and therefore his inability to communicate on the same wavelength with the Western caucus. At that time, the party will split and the right will weaken again.

Harper may not be liked by his MPs but he is able to unify them and to him, they owe their paycheques.

Harper calling on "federalist" to work together

Again, Mr Harper leaving the GG, excluded the will and the desire of the Canadians who voted for the Bloc and asked the "federalist" parties to work together in creating a plan for Canada. What in effect he is doing is excluding all those Canadians who voted Bloc from even asking their opinion, or their representatives' opinion for a plan.

His "divide and reign" policy is not only aimed at his political rivals but also at the structure of Canada. Harper's desire to hold on power is an utmost goal for him with no consideration of the cost the country has to pay. His suppressed Reformed ideology takes the best of him and clouts his vision as a national leader.

The 1.74 Billion dollar deficit

According to the Fiscal Monitor for August 2008 that was issued by Department of Finance for the Government of Canada, the deficit for the month was 1.7Billion dollar. The Minister of Finance is predicting that the GOC will end up with a modest surplus this fiscal year ending March 2009.

A closer look at the report, reveals bigger problems in store for the Conservatives. As table 1.0, one can notice the following problems that will occur within the few months left to March 2009. As the economy start the nose dive towards recession, companies will be shedding jobs as they start to mount losses. The effects of this are as follows:
1: Drop in the personal income tax.
2: Drop in the corporate income tax.
3: Drop in the GST revenues as people start to spend less
4: Increase in the Employment insurance paid to laid off workers.

	August 2007	August 2007	%
Personal Income tax	8,448	9,038	+7.0
Corporate income tax	2,243	1,277	-43.1
GST Revenues	2,044	1,846	-9.7

Table 1.0 Selected Revenue items


Another big problem for the GOC is that income tax paid by banks and Canadian companies with US operations for 2008-2009 fiscal year will drop significantly and for the following reasons: Most of these entities with US operations need to report the loses for this fiscal year. The loses will be reported in Canadian dollars at a rate of 1.25-1.30 Canadian dollar for every 1 US dollar loss. The exchange rate will magnify the losses incurred by the US operations, thus less taxes paid.

The Minister of Finance had prior knowledge to the state of finances for the month of August. He might not have known the exact numbers but he would have known the drastic drop in corporate income tax (43%) and its effect on the budget. This is very true as that single item reflects about 55% of the total deficit for the whole month.

Equipped with this insider knowledge, the Conservative government fabricated an impasse and called a snap election.

The Rise of Stéphane Dion to the helm of the Liberal party leadership

The recent win by the Conservatives should not be seen as the dawn of a new era or an incremental incline by the conservative movement. The Conservative party won was against Stéphane Dion was predictable.

The rise of Stéphane Dion to the helm of the Liberal party leadership was due to head lock fight between Michael Ignatieff and Bob Rae where were the front runners. During the convention to elect the leader and after the second ballot, Ken Dryden withdrew withdrew from the race in support of Mr. Rae, while Gerard Kennedy withdrew but supporting Mr. Dion.

The convention ended by having Mr. Stéphane Dion zooming from the third place position to the 1st place bypassing both Ignatieff and Rae.

Candidate	Delegate Support	Percentage
Michael Ignatieff	1,481	31.6%
Bob Rae	1,132	24.1%
Stéphane Dion	974	20.8%
Gerard Kennedy	884	18.8%
Ken Dryden	219	4.7%
Total	4,690	100.

Table 1.0

The 2006 Liberal convention ended with a shocker. The Liberal delegates have elected Stéphane Dion to lead them in the next election against once of the best financed propaganda machine in the form of the Conservative Party.